What the Thai Election Results Might Mean

Some observers are saying that Thaksin is stronger than ever, or at least in a better position than he would have been at this moment had he not been ousted in a 2006 coup. Parties linked to him have now won several successive elections.

His little sister’s triumph at the polls, while not necessarily a victory for women’s rights (she freely admits she’ll be taking marching orders from her brother), could bode well for reconciliation (whatever that means—the vague term was tossed around in nearly every speech by every candidate during the past couple months). If Thais perceive that a feminine touch at the helm lessens the winner-take-all nature of politics, they may be willing to move forward without requiring retribution. However, Yingluck (Thaksin) and her (his) coalition will control three-fifths of the seats in Parliament, so retribution will be within easy reach. The main check on them will be the generals.

What might be some signs of reconciliation? Tabling discussions of amnesty for Thaksin, for starters. Any moves to bring him home too quickly would be inflammatory. Likewise for any rushed investigations into the violent ending of the 2010 hot season protests. If that violence stays at the front of the discourse, the temptation to repeat it may prove too great.

Investors, who like big wins by pro-business parties, feel this latest election has advanced the prospects of Thailand’s economy. How about Thailand’s democracy? On the face of things, you’d have to say that the one-person, one-vote concept has never been stronger here. The Thai courts, looking out for the interests of the old guard in ways that recall Bush v. Gore in 2000, managed to thwart the popular votes of the last few years by dissolving Thaksin’s party for election irregularities. Now the people’s voices have spoken extra loudly, drawing comparisons, fair or not, to Arab spring.

Yet if recent events lead to Thaksin’s return, and the military decides that Thailand isn’t big enough for the two of them, then probably the country will have taken a step backwards in the democracy department.