Big Agenda

Obama visits Myanmar tomorrow and Friday, his second visit in the past two years. Some of the questions he wrestles with every day are familiar to the government leaders here: How to govern a country so that minority groups feel included? How to manage natural resources sustainably? How to make rules that guarantee a wide sharing of benefits?

These questions are interrelated. Answer one, and you’ve partly answered the others.

One writer, trying to address them all with a broad prescription, suggested that

…the solution lies in unifying a diverse group of interests that could move away from the extraction, violence, and poverty of the past….

This unified group would have to include reform-minded elements in the government and parliament, democracy forces (including the National League for Democracy and ’88 Generation), nationalist military officers who want national development, progressive industry and business interests including “good” cronies, and ethnic groups…. This will be very difficult because elements within each group may prefer the unsustainable present to a better future. (David Dapice, 2013)

The top priority for a broad coalition of this kind, Dapice writes, would be the election of state governors and local parliaments. This federalist approach also assumes the meaningful taxation and sharing of natural resource revenues.

Elections will be on Obama’s mind when he chats with his hosts. In the coming year this country will decide who is eligible to serve as president.  The current constitution bars Aung San Suu Kyi from that post. Obama will certainly bring up this issue with both the Naypyidaw leaders and The Lady herself. Also, new members of Parliament are scheduled to be chosen about a year from now in a vote that most people expect will be dominated by members of Suu Kyi’s party. The U.S. president, through the Embassy staff here, will push to make that balloting fair and on time.

He’ll also have China on the brain, having just come from there. Offsetting the rise of China in Asia explains much of Obama’s agenda on this trip. Human rights won’t top the list as it did in forming past U.S.-Myanmar policy. Now that most economic sanctions have been dropped, a more important issue will be making things easier for American businesses.

To be sure, Obama will bring up the humanitarian situation here, especially in Rakhine State, and he’ll discuss press freedom. Gender equality will come up. He may even talk about teaching critical thinking in a culture that discourages the questioning of teachers and elders.

The challenge of the federal approach mentioned above may not be one that Obama has much standing to do anything about. The level of social trust here remains very low, especially between ethnic groups and the government/military. If you think that’s an easy problem to fix, just ask the people of Ferguson, Missouri.