Calm Before Collapse?

Headlines here this month aren’t as full of protests as they have been during the previous year, although the country is no less divided. You can draw the dividing lines lots of ways—between old guard and new money, between those who love and hate Thaksin, or between regions.

No matter how you slice it, a smooth democratic future seems unlikely. Winners of recent elections have acted as if they have the right to take all. The current coalition government was not elected. In order to form, it was forced to accept as ministers people who have since been charged in connection with last year’s siege of Bangkok’s two main airports.

How those charges play out may determine whether the coalition holds, as well as the outcome of the next elections, whenever they are called.