Ceasefire, cont.

Ethnic armies here have come out of the woods lately. Maybe a ceasefire agreement with some of them is getting closer.

We’ve seen this movie before. At least 30 times in the past quarter century, the central government penned truces with armed groups from inside what it sees as the country’s borders. Many of those accords, usually signed with only one group at a time, gradually came apart.

Now talks have been going for over a year about a ceasefire between the Myanmar government armed forces (aka Tatmadaw) and a collection of between 15 and 20 different groups, depending on the day and on how you count. These organizations have little in common except that they have fought against the central government. They represent peoples who call themselves, among other names, Chin, Lahu, Kachin, Kayah, Kayin, Mon, Pa’O, Rakhine, Shan, Ta’ang, Wa, and no doubt several more that I have overlooked.

The agreement as currently worded has a pretty limited scope, but it does plant the seeds for an end to decades of fighting in some areas of the country. The potential for development and investment in those areas is of course appealing to an outgoing president trying to polish his legacy during an election year.

Dialogue stalled in recent months, meaning that a symbolic deadline came and went: February 12 is Union Day, a national holiday in Myanmar that remembers the signing of a 1947 ethnic group accord that was never realized. Hoping to regain momentum, some actors, including the president, his two vice presidents, and the speakers of both houses of parliament, today signed a “Deed of Commitment for Peace and National Reconciliation.”

Some of the groups at the table have existed for over 60 years; others less than 30. The smallest of them are thought to have fewer than 1,000 fighters; most claim between 3,000 and 8,000; one may be more than 25,000 strong. Almost none speaks the same language; all must use Burmese for everyone to understand. Included in the mix are animists, Buddhists, Christians, and communists.

Because of the chance that bystanders might miss out on political gains, lots of long-quiet groups are adding their voices, and sometimes even their arms, to the conversations and conflicts around the edges of the country. Daily active fighting continues, especially in Kachin and Shan States. Just three days ago a fresh conflict flared up along the Chinese border.

For its part, the Tatmadaw says (at least publicly) that its 300,000+ soldiers don’t attack ethnic people, but rather fight against “enemies threatening sovereignty of the country, illegal trade of natural resources, and drug traffickers.” The senior general was quoted recently as tallying “1,557 major battles and 16,571 minor ones… to safeguard Myanmar” between 1948 and 2015.

If asked about what he fears most, the general would likely say “dis-integration of the union.” The armies opposing him would probably counter that abusive central government policies lead to that very disintegration. Some of the ethnic groups feel their members have been forced to leave Myanmar because of violence, forced labor, or other human rights violations. Other groups have been pushed off their land in various ways, and now live primarily in internally displaced persons camps—as many as half a million people, again depending on the day and how you count.

Then there is the fraught question of Burmanization. Myanmar contains many cultures and languages. The dominant group, the Bamar, makes up much more than half the population but lives on much less than half of the land. In upcountry ethnic areas, many of Myanmar’s non-Burmese people resent suggestions that they should conform to Burmese ways of being, speaking, worshiping, or whathaveyou. They don’t feel Burmese, and don’t like the assumption that they should want to share the same army or even the same country with Burmese.

So any agreement coming out of this year’s talks and today’s Deed of Commitment will surely be only a starting point. Left out will be questions like a rotating commander in chief for the army, a federal military structure, and how to handle groups that choose not to sign this time.

It’s good for the country to have this dialogue, even if expectations are low. It will be important to continue conversations about weightier political and economic issues, such as resettling displaced people, defining self-rule, and moving toward an amended constitution.